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The Future of Europe:
A Modest Contribution
to the European Debate
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Antoni Kukliński
Nowy Sącz School of Business - National-Louis University, Poland
President of the Polish Association for the Club of Rome
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Motto:
Ignoranti quem portus petat nullus ventus suus est
(Seneca)
Introduction [1]
Europe of the XXI century is facing the greatest challenge in its history
– the challenge of marginalization – the challenge of the transformation[2] of
Europe into a fragment of a new global periphery. This historical moment is
creating a strong demand for a grand debate related to the diagnosis of the
present state of Europe and to the visions and scenarios related to the Future
of Europe.
We need a special concentration of our wisdom, imagination and courage
to analyze the present realities and the potential futures of Europe. We must
find the intellectual and moral capacities to overcome the barriers of conventional
wisdom, of political correctness and of educational self-satisfaction.
In this short paper it would be impossible to outline a comprehensive
vision of a grand European Debate. We would however try to present a very
modest contribution to this Debate.
I. The paradox of J.S. Nye
In the path breaking book of J.S. Nye [3] we find the following question:
"Can we do better as we enter the twenty-first century? The apocrypha of Yogi
Berra warns us not to make predictions, particularly about the future. Yet we have
no choice. We walk around with pictures of the future in our heads as a necessary
condition of planning our actions."
I would like to convert this question into a thesis:
"The previsions of the future are impossible but necessary".The human mind
since the beginning of history is trying to outline an interpretation of this
paradox and to find the key to the mystery of the Future. We can indicate three paradigms trying to design this key:
- the paradigm of religion
- the paradigm of art
- the paradigm of science
In the framework of the third paradigm – we should develop a new Eurofuturology [4]
facing the challenges of the XXI century.
II. The lost opportunities to create a better world at the end of the
XX century
These lost opportunities are a very important element in the evaluation
of the global and European scene of the last decade of the XX century. In
this context [5] it is worthwhile to review the charming and illuminating intellectual
joke of The Economist [6] published in the New Year Issue of 1993 as
a sui generis science fiction under the title "Looking back from 2992 – World
History, Chapter 13 – The disastrous 21st Century’’. Let me present three
passages from that essay [7]:
"This was an opportunity of a magnitude the world had rarely seen before. As
Chapter 12 explained, the three-sided War of Ideas that had occupied most of the
20th century ended in a sweeping victory for the once apparently doomed forces of
liberalism. The defeat of racial totalitarianism in 1945 having been followed by the
defeat of communist totalitarianism in 1989-91, the victorious pluralists seemed to
have the future at their feet."
"The failure of clear thinking applied to all three members of the victorious coalition
– the United States, the European Community and Japan. They could, if they
wished, have brought a share of liberty and prosperity to much of the rest of the world
by the end of the 21st century. They did wish it. But they failed to see that to succeed
they had to remain a partnership. Instead, each of the three almost at once started to
assert itself against others."
"Looking back from 2992, one can see why the democracies missed the great opportunity
they were given in the 1990s. The fact that they had had to spend the 20th
century fighting their two-front War of Ideas, against communism and fascism, was
itself a sign that a cycle of history was approaching its end. The democracies needed
to re-examine the ideas that had created this cycle: but they left the re-examination
too late."
After World War II – the victorious global elite was able to design and
establish a new global order. This order was functioning in the second half of
the XX century as a sui generis global government. Unfortunately the global
elite of the end of the XX century was not able to design a new global order
for the XXI century. The intellectual joke of The Economist is revealing a real
great tragedy of lost opportunities in global and mega historical scale.
III. The transformation of the global scene in the first decades of
the XXI century [8]
We observe a process of a very deep transformation of the global scene.
From a certain point of view this is the crucial turning point of the last 500
years. The Atlantic community and the Atlantic civilization were dominant
actors of the global scene during the great chapter of universal history of the
years 1500-2000[9]. The XXI century will be the beginning of a new chapter
of this history – the chapter of the dominance of the Pacific community and
Pacific civilization.
The world is flat. A brief history of the twenty first century.This is the title
of a path-breaking book of Thomas L. Friedman [10]. This book is creating a
new mind-set of a new interpretation of globalization as the process shaping
the global future. The book is not an academic masterpiece but an attempt to
create an impressionistic picture of the global competitive climate of the XXI
century. The book is a general but also a deeply personalized story of globalization
presented via the experiences of persons and personalities operating
in the flat world of the XXI century.
It is at same time formulating a hypothesis of a deep comprehensive transformation
of the global scene generated by the emergence of two new mega
actors of the global scene – China and India. The global economy cannot
function anymore without China and India. This is the most important turning
point of the last 500 years
In the Business Week we find the projection of the dramatic transformation
of the global economy as presented in Table I.
The analysis of this table is leading to three conclusions. In the years 2004-
2050 we can expect:
- the stagnation of the rank of USA in global economy,
- the decline of the rank of European Union and Japan in global
economy,
- the rapid advance of the rank of China and India in global economy.
Naturally this dramatic projection should be taken cum grano salis. This
projection was outlined as an extrapolation of the present differences in the
rates of economic growth which are very unfavorable for Europe and Japan
or even for USA.
This projection should be interpreted as a signal of alarm of the emerging
spectre of the economic marginalization of Europe.
IV. The four features of the crisis of the European civilization
There are different approaches in the discussion related to the very deep
crisis of the European civilization emerging in the first decade of the XXI
century. In this context we would like to concentrate attention on four most pronounced features of the crisis:
- the lost capacity of innovation
- the lost will to life
- the lost will to power
- the lost spiritual identity
1) the lost capacity of innovation
The lost capacity is well outlined by R. Galar[11]:
"The main competitive asset of Europe used to be freedom, not perfection. At
present perfection receives more and more attention, while freedom is being pushed to
the preserves of procedural democracy and unconventional lifestyles. The progressing
degradation of the once paramount innovative prominence of Europe might be a direct
consequence of this shift. Perfection is tempting as it allows to squeeze most from
the existing opportunities. Freedom is necessary as to explore opportunities not yet
identified, what is the essence of adaptation. It is needed to open the doors into the
world of trial and error, spontaneity and soft selection, where subsequent waves of
priorities and high-techs emerge rather than are decreed. The specific predicament of
the present European might be that its S&T sector and economy are both: not free
enough to compete with the US in opening new innovative horizons, and not perfect
enough to compete with the East Asian cultures in exploitation of new technologies."
2) the lost will to life
The lost will to life is well grasped by M. György:[12]
"To balance the dramatic decrease in the number of children European countries
must turn to external labour forces, which at the same time deepen the internal cultural
differences. Maintaining economic growth, providing the expected standard of
goods and services, ensuring welfare services at a relatively high level – still considered
low by many people – are possible only by involving external labour force. This
will have two types of consequences which will generate complex social effects. On
the one hand, the labour force – due to the scope of a relatively free movement – shall
migrate from the less developed regions to the more developed ones. It will increase
– or at least maintain – the regional differences, differences which in turn will bring
about actions directed alleviating them. On the other hand, the settlement of labour
from other regions shall become a necessity – it will cease to be an option that one
evaluates in terms of its benefits and drawbacks. The choice will only be whether
the labour force (and population) is “exported’’ from (1) quickly industrialized Asian
countries with huge populations – which follow a life-programme very similar to
the Protestant ethics, but also face similar population problems in the medium-term,
or (2) African or Near-Eastern countries where the mentality fundamentally differs
from the Protestant life-programme, and which struggle with severe problems of a
demographic boom. In the latter case, however, the cultural assimilation problem the
host societies face will increase manifold."
3) the lost will to power
The lost will to power is a reflection emerging from the pages of the contribution
of R. Cooper [13]
Let us present two quotations of this author:
"Nietzsche is arguing that justice originates not in the desire of the weak for
protection, but in the tragic experience of the strong. The same argument could be
applied to peaceful, postmodern systems of international relations. Whatever the
truth of Nietzsche’s insight into the origins of justice, it is certain that the trauma of
the twentieth century lies behind what might be described, in Nietzschean terms, as
the loss of Europe’s will to power."
"The logic of European integration is that Europe should, sooner or later, develop
common foreign policy and a common security policy and, probably, a common defense.
But the world does not proceed by logic. It proceeds by political choice. None
of this will happen unless Europe’s leaders want it and choose to make it happen.
President George W. Bush has directly explained why we should want it. Speaking
to the American Enterprise Institute in February 2003, he said: ’We meet here during
a crucial period in the history . . . of the civilized world. Part of that history was written by others. The rest will be written by us.’ If we want that ‘us’ to include
Europe, we shall need more influence with the United States. And that means we
shall need more power, both military power and multilateral legitimacy."
4) the lost spiritual identity [14]
It is extremely difficult to define the spiritual identity of Europe in a global
context leaving the Christian tradition outside of our attention. To my mind
the atheistic and agnostic domain of the European society could accept the
Christian element in the spiritual identity of Europe as a civic value of instrumental
character useful in the defense of European spiritual identity in global
context.
Naturally this crisis of the European civilization can be defined only in
a multidimensional open minded perspective. It would be however very
difficult to support a thesis – that the crisis of European civilization is only an
eurosceptical dream. [15]
V. The Future of Europe. A pessimistic interpretation
Let us quote the following brilliantly formulated opinion of R. Galar:[16]
“The present prospects of Europe seem clear but are not encouraging.
- Europe is dying out. At least its indigenous population is dying out. Two generations
after millions perished in the deadly war for the lebensraum, children
are born some 50% bellow the simple reproduction rate because the potential parents
had more vital obligations. Migrations of extraordinary dimensions might
be expected in result.
- Europe is loosing its purpose. The generation of sexual revolution – the ones
who started their long march trough institutions with the: don’t believe anybody
above thirty battle cry – approaches retirement. It seems determined to go out
from the scene with egoistic flair comparable with the famous: Apres nous, les
deluge.
- Europe is facing generational revolt, as demands of masses of frustrated and xenophobic
old burden the relatively few young – usually, the children of the other people. This might culminate in a social upheaval, which could dwarf the events
of 1960s, as the causes behind the approaching disillusionment are much more serious.
- Europe is loosing common sense in its confrontation with complexities of globalization.
Sixty years of historically unprecedented safety and comfort resulted
in paucity of life experiences. Learning by trial and error has suffered, as consequences
of stupid choices were deflated by social security. In effect, the postulates
to fix the decomposing social security are met with flat refusal, and immigrants,
whose work might help to sustain the system, are fend off.
- Europe is loosing its creativeness. Education systems have become vehicles for
promoting greater equality and devaluating quality. All encompassing procedures
and ubiquitous irritating monitoring harm emergence of innovative ideas.
The best minds are emigrating to US.
- Europe is becoming ungovernable. Corrective mechanisms of democracy get ruined,
as the unrelenting consumer conditioning and adulation of individual success
make the concept of common good almost incomprehensible to electorates.
Instead, there is this arrogant and dangerous convictions that dreadful things
might happen only to the lesser people in other places.
In the developing constitutional limbo after the failed referenda in France and Nederland,
all the earlier achievements of EU look suddenly more fragile and less sustainable.
Efforts to unify were in the history of Europe plentiful and never fully
successful. We should be concerned that tormented by internal egoisms and devoid
of common vision EU might follow the downward track of the ancient Greece – from
splendor to marginalization and insignificance. The great dream of EU founding fathers
is in danger. And the peaceful character of the possible decomposition can only
be wished for."
VI. The Future of Europe – an optimistic interpretation
These are (inter alia) two magnificent experiences in the history of Europe,
the Enlightenment, and the Renaissance. In the beginning of the XXI century
we should have the intellectual courage to outline a comprehensive and
critical comparative reflection related to those Two Experiences.We could
test the value judgment that a New European Renaissance is a better symbolic
metaphor for the Revival of Europe of the XXI century than the New
Enlightenment.
Europe is representing an immense economic, social, cultural and political
potential. Europe in its long history has demonstrated many times the
capacity and power to find new forces of dynamic development. There are very strong arguments to support the hope that the new European renaissance
of the XXI Century is a feasible reality. There is also a strong hope that
the unity ofWestern Civilization will be an important feature of the XXI century
– that following the charismatic formulation of T.G. Ash – the "West can
be [17] put together again".
Let us note the observation of T.G. Ash:[18]
"Economics is a different matter. Even in the American economy will again pull
ahead of the combined European economy in absolute size, while China and India
are rising fast, Europe will still be the United States’ nearest competitor for the foreseeable
future. And the two are now so deeply interwined. In case we get numbed
by shorthand billions and trillions,it’s worth spelling out the zeros in full: in 2000
American firms had some $3,000,000,000,000 worth of assets in America. There
is more European investment in Texas than there is American investment in all of
japan. The U.S. also partly depends on Europeans (although even more on Asians)
continuing to buy American bonds, to sustain its huge deficits. In trade negotiations,
the E.U. talks to the U.S. as giant to giant. The euro has the potential to became a
rival reserve currency to the dollar, especially if oil sales begin to be denominated in
euros. American notions of unbridled sovereignty will be qualified by these economic
realities. Yet the fact that America has to take Europe seriously economically does not
mean it will do so politically. As in pre-1914 Europe, there is no automatic "readacross"
from economics to politics. All the European investment in Texas did not
stop George W. Bush from behaving as he did."
Fascinated by the political and cultural differences we are often overlooking
the fact that the integration of the American and European economic potential
is a reality of an Atlantic Economy of the XXI century. There is no
doubt that the united and integrated Atlantic Community will be able to face
the challenges of the XXI century. TheWestern Civilization will find a proper
and honorable place on the global scene of the XXI century.
So we need not only a grand Debate related to the Future of Europe [19], we
need also a grand Debate related to the future of the Atlantic Community.
VII. Europe 2050 – The challenge for our knowledge imagination
and character
I am told that in Beijing you can find a comprehensive document – China
and the World 2050. Why Brussels is late in the preparation of such document for Europe? It is not a matter of the deficiency of knowledge – it is a mater
of the deficiency of moral and political courage to look into the mirror of
the true shape of Europe 2050. The members of the European Union should
encourage the European Commission and the galaxy of Think – Thanks of the
Commission to move fast to establish an example of an open debate related
to the global and European vision of the year 2050. It is a great pleasure to
note that Poland is doing very well in this field. It is a virtuous coincidence
that in November 2007 three interesting volumes related to Europe 2050 were
published in Poland:
- Europe in the perspective of 2050 [20]
- Towards a New Creative and innovative Europe [21]
- The Future of European Regions [22]
This trilogy is an interesting substantial and methodological contribution to
the Grand debate Europe 2050. In this context two Warsaw Conferences
should be mentioned:
- The International Workshop Conference – organized by the Ministry for
Regional Development, The Future of European Region, Warsaw Sheraton
Hotel, November 9th –10th 2007.
- The grand Conference organized by the Polish Academy of Sciences – Europe
– the perspective of 2050,Warsaw, Palac of Staszic, December 6th 2007.
These conferences will be an important Polish Contribution to the European
Debate.
References
[1] This paper is a follow up of my earlier contributions published in three volumes: A. Kuklinski, B. Skuza (eds) Europe in the perspective of global change – Polish Association for
the Club of Rome, Warsaw 2003, p. 462. A. Kukliński, B. Skuza (eds) Turning points in
the transformation of the global scene, Polish Association for the Club of Rome, Warsaw
2006, p. 331. A. Kukliński, C. Lusiński, K. Pawłowski (eds) Towards a New Creative and
Innovative Europe, Volume Five, Nowy Sącz 2007, p. 448.
[2] P. Opala, K. Rybinski, Gordian knots of the 21st century. Paper presented on
the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the Polish Association for the Club of Rome,Warsaw
October 25th 2007. This paper will be published in the volume – A. Kuklinski, K. Pawłowski
(eds) Towards a New Futurology, Reupus volume 4, Nowy Sącz 2008.
[3] J.S. Nye, The Paradox of American Power, Oxford University Press 2002, p. 3.
[4] A. Kukliński, Eurofuturology 2050 (in:) A. Kukliński et alia (eds) Towards a New
Creative and Innovative Europe, Reupus Volume 5, Nowy Sącz 2007 compare also: A. Kukliński, B. Skuza (eds) Europe in the perspective of global change. Polish Association for the
Club of Rome,Warsaw 2003.
[5] A. Kukliński, The growth of knowledge and the transformation of Central and Eastern Europe
(in:) A. Kukliński (ed.) Baltic Europe in the Perspective of Global Change. Euroreg,
Warsaw 1995.
[6] The Economist, December 26th 1992 – January 8th 1993.
[7] The Economist, op.cit., p. 17-19.
[8] A. Kukliński, B. Skuza (eds) Turning points in the transformation of the global
scene. Polish Association for the Club of Rome,Warsaw 2006.
[9] D.S. Landes, The Weath and Poverty of nations – Polish translation Warsaw 2000.
N. Davies, Europe – A history, Oxford University Press, 1996.
[10] T.G. Friedman, The World is flat, Farror, Strauss and Garoux, New York, 2005. Compare
also: H.W. French, China’s new paradigm. A thriving dictatorship. IHT, November 3rd-4th
2007.
[11] R. Galar, Adaptive versus managerial approach in S and T policy (in:) A. Kukliński, K.
Pawłowski (eds) Europe – The strategic choices. Reupus, Volume Two, Nowy Sącz 2005.
[12] M. György, Futures of Europe (in:) A. Kukliński, K. Pawłowski (ed) The Future of Europe.
The global challenges. Reupus, Volume One, Nowy Sącz 2005.
[13] R. Cooper, The Breaking of Nations Order and Chaos in the Twenty First Century, Atlantic
Month Press, No. 4, 2003, p. 164-165, 171-172.
[14]Compare: R. Stark, The victory of reason – How Christianity led to freedom, capitalism and
western success, Random House, NY 2005. Compare also the papers of K. Porwit and P.
Mazurkiewicz (in:) Towards a creative and innovative Europe, op.cit.
[15] L. Emmerij, Has Europe a splendid future behind it (in:) A. Kuklinski et alia (eds)
Towards a New Creative and Innovative Europe, op.cit.
[16] R. Galar (in:) Turning points, op.cit, p. 323.
[17] T.G. Ash, Free World, Random House, NY, 2004, p. 22.
[18] T. G. Ash, op.cit., p. 122.
[19] Compare the interesting but wrong oppinion of The Economist – Give Europe a say. The
Economist, October 27th 2007.
[20] A. Karpiński (ed.) Europe in the perspective of 2050. Polish Academy of Science, Committee
Poland 2000 Plus, Warsaw 2007. This volume is a comprehensive and well documented
outline of the crucial problems of Europe 2000 – 2050. I hope that the Polish Academy of
Sciences will prepare an expanded English edition of this volume.
[21] A. Kukliński, C. Lusiński, K. Pawłowski (eds) Towards a New Creative and Innovative
Europe, Reupus Volume 5, Nowy Sącz 2007. The European Renaissance of the XXI century
will open a new chapter in the history of Europe. This volume is a challenge to our minds
and imagination trying to answer the question – Is it possible to develop a New Creative
and Innovative Europe.
[22] P. Jakubowska, A. Kukliński, P. Żuber (eds) The Future of European Regions. Regional
Development Forum. The Ministry of Regional development, Warsaw 2007. The volume
is formulating a provocative question – Meaningless Europe? (the paper of K. Rybiński).
According to this Author the New Vision of Europe is formulated as follows: "New vision
– Europe to become headquarters of the world service hub. Ideas are generated in Europe,
simpler parts of business process are sourced in the world".
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